The Boundary of the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy and the Dilemma of Social Prediction

The Boundary of the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy and the Dilemma of Social Prediction
Richard L. Henshel
The British Journal of Sociology, Vol. 33, No. 4 (Dec., 1982), 511-528.

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy (SFP)	An initially false definition of the situation (prophecy) which becomes true because of the actions performed as a result of public acceptance of the prophecy.
Self-Defeating Prophecy (SDP)	An initially true definition of the situation (prophecy) which became false as a result of its acceptance.

CRITICAL RAMIFICATIONS TO COMMUNICATION

Tertium quid

Something related to but distinct from two other things; intermediate person or thing.

(p. 512) Mention of the placebo effect in medical research. The placebo changes the behavior of the physician as well as the patient. It is necessary for the person administering the placebo to the subject, not to be aware that they possess the placebo. The placebo analogy can be applied secret organizations that prop up tyrannical leaders.

MAJOR AREAS WHERE SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY HAS BEEN DETECTED

Race and Ethic Relations	Minority Stereotypes as self-fulfilling Ecological invasion-succession (block-busting)
Deviant Behavior and Social Control	Labeling of deviants perpetuating deviancy Paranoid delusions as self-fulfilling
Models of human nature as self-fulfilling	The balance of behavioral control between the primitive and modern parts of the brain.
Education	Self-fulfilling aspects of teacher expectancy Self-fulfilling aspects of school testing, tracking, streaming. Self-image and performance as an SFP
Scientific Inquiry	Investigator expectancy Subject expectancy Placebo effect
Politics, Law and International Relations	Predictions of voting behaviour Escalation and conflict resolution Administration of the law
Economics	Market fluctuation Inflation and depression spirals Trend projection as self-fulfilling Occupational stereotypes
Religion	Millenarianism, mysticism Faith healing as SFP

Self-Altering Prophecy as a methodological dilemma.

Predictions can be rendered invalid if they are brought to the attention of the people for whom they are directed, and if, in the light of the knowledge of the prediction, these people alter the patterns of their behavior upon whose study the original conclusions were based.

Watkins	Friedrichs	Krishna and Stack	Giddens
"no social law exists which could not be altered if the individuals concerned both wanted to alter it and possessed the appropriate information"	The mutability of all social laws. Every social prediction, without exception, is self-altering in fact	Uses the dichotomy to construct what is clearly the radical dualism between the world of nature and the world of thought.	The SFP is recognized in positivistic social science only as a marginal annoyance to be avoided in generating predictions rather than seen in its fullest aspect as a major distinguishing feature of the social world.

Are there certain social phenomena inherently immune to the SFP?	The Real Time Factor	The Sealed Prediction
The smallest reducible component of behavior is the selection to ignore a stimulus that one has practiced to ignore. About 1/24 of a second is needed to select an existing custom designed blocker for a specific sound, voice or general information source such an opposing political candidate. The next slower action requires the construction of a block specifically designed to "tune out" a new stimulus that is undesirable. This cognitive function renders the recipient vulnerable to information that could spark an attitude change. Radio commercials are quickly adopting methods by which the listener is placed in a state of passive acceptance before the product is announced.	Any behavior of sufficient complexity and rapidity-in-use that volitional alteration due to reactance to prediction is ruled out. A real-time limitation intervenes in terms of the deadline for behavioral decisions and the complexity of the prediction.	A statement retained under lock and key until the time for its fulfillment or failure has passed. A mute predictor may alter the future he predicted through his own idiosyncratic behavioural changes

A working typology of social predictions resistant to self-fulfilling prophecy
Alterations requiring unlikely skills	Predictions incorporating unknown magnitude of variables	Predictions employing higher mathematics	Predictions employing esoteric conceptualization
Alterations requiring unlikely skills	Variables which the layman cannot measure unaided. The impossibility of obtaining numeric values without expert assistance. An as-of-yet unmeasured variable variables kept secret	Esoteric formulae lengthy and difficult mathematical computation Deliberate mathematization as "insulation" from alteration.	Superfluous jargon unintelligible to the lay audience would be misinterpreted or ignored all-together. Doublespeak
Alterations requiring unlikely collusion	Predictions about cross-cultural regularities	Prediction about competition or conflict	~
Alterations requiring unlikely collusion	Conscious alteration of a cross-cultural regularity would require a similarity of values respecting the virtue of altering the prediction across numerous distinct cultures before the accuracy of the prediction was substantially affected.	Inasmuch as such parties can agree on little else it seems unlikely they would agree to alter social prophecies, while unilateral attempts at alterations by one party would be constrained by the overwhelming security requirements presented by the presence of the enemy.
Alterations requiring unlikely communication	Predictions hostile to gatekeeper interests (Mass Media, Parents, Teachers)	Predictions about social isolates	Predictions about persons with limited comprehension
Alterations requiring unlikely communication	A prediction that is offensive to the values and interests of the gatekeepers of mass communication cannot ordinarily be self-altering if it requires mass action. Mass media gatekeepers will not allow it to be printed or distributed.	The hard to reach core of the unemployed Social categories lost in the bowels of modern cities. Individuals who abstain from group contacts for psychological reasons. Whole communities which choose to avoid mainstream culture or communication.	Infants, younger children, mentally retarded and the insane. Self-alteration may still be possible through changes in the behavior of others as a result of the prediction such as facilitators or caregivers.
Alterations requiring unlikely flaunting of interpretations	Predictions interpreted as "unimportant"	Predictions interpreted as "unbelievable"	Predictions interpreted as "unalterable"
	The consequences of the prediction having no perceptible value are the basis of the prediction.	The messenger has no perceived value. The messenger is perceived to have a hidden agenda. The prediction is beyond the scope of comprehension	Any sort of belief in the unalterability of the predicted state only rules out collective actions designed to thwart it.

Empirical investigations of reflexive prediction would explore motivational and personality variables, social arrangements conducive to self-alteration, the prestige and credibility of the predictor, and the mode and media of prediction dissemination. Clearly, at some point selected aspects of existing specialties can be brought to bear including theories of attitude change, social influence, and dissemination of innovation.